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Charts We're Watching

The UMBS 6.00 Coupon opened Monday of last week at 101-1 and closed Friday at 100-30+.  The 2-year yield has reached highs not seen in over a decade as its yield rose as high as 4.937%, and the 10-year hit over 4.00% on Wednesday of last week.

Initial jobless claims released last week were down to 190,000 vs 197,000 forecast. Continuing claims were 1.655 million, down from 1.66 million. U.S. productivity showed decline from forecast of 2.5% to 1.7% with the last reading at 3%. Unfortunately, unit labor costs continue to rise as productivity growth falls. Unit labor costs were up 3.2% alongside compensation which rose 4.9%.

Looming this week is February’s employment report due out Friday. Markets will also be watching for clues during Fed Chair Powell’s testimony Tuesday and Wednesday. More rate hikes are needed, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said over the weekend. Daly also said Federal Reserve policymakers will need to raise interest rates higher and keep them there longer to tackle the higher prices caused by sticky inflation. The market currently has another ~75bps priced in to reach a terminal rate of 5.5% in September, before plateauing briefly and pivoting to cuts prior to year-end.

MBS bounced back a bit on Thursday and Friday of last week and are slightly improved this morning, the 10-Year Treasury is at 3.954% and UMBS 30-Year 6.00 Coupon at 101-2+.

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